Heber, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

776
FXUS65 KPSR 061115
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
415 AM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

.UPDATE...Updated 12z Aviation Discussion...

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures near 10 degrees above normal will continue today
  through the start of next week with lower desert highs in the
  upper 70s to lower 80s.

- Minor HeatRisk starting today through at least Monday in the
  lower desert regions.

- Overall dry weather conditions should prevail through at least
  early next week before a pattern change later next week brings
  cooler temperatures and potential precipitation chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mid-level water vapor imagery shows the axis of the ridge stretching
from the NW CONUS down through Western TX. Off the Pacific NW
coastline a weak troughing feature has began to work its way down
the coast line and looks to absorb the previous cut off low that has
been affecting our region the past couple of days. This will result
in another cut off low forming today off the southern coast of CA,
and will progress down along the Baja peninsula over the few days.
However, this will have litle effect on temperatures as afternoon
highs across the lower deserts today and tomorrow will be generally
in the lower 80s. Additionally overnight temperatures will remain
above normal, with morning lows across the lower desert regions
ranging between ~52-57 degrees. This morning Phoenix Sky Harbor has
a 60-70% chance of tying the record warm low of 57 degrees, and a 50-
60% chance of setting a new record. If a record is broken, this will
be the second day in a row of breaking a record warm low.

Due to the continuing of well-above normal afternoon highs, minor
HeatRisk is noted for most of the lower elevation valley locations
through at least Monday. This will put individuals that are
extremely sensitive to heat at risk of health impacts. There have
been many heat related calls for help over the previous couple of
days, proving that heat can still be impactful in the desert in
early February. Therefore, it is always a good idea to practice heat
safety if planning to spend outdoors for a prolonged period of
time.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...
The cut off low that has been to our SW will help lower heights
aloft slightly, however, due to its warm nature we will continue
to be under the influence of positive height anomalies through
early next week. That being said, very little spread between the
25th and 75th percentile are seen for high temperatures for this
weekend through Monday. Temperatures across the lower desert
region are forecast to top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s with
Minor HeatRisk. Model ensembles are still showing a deeper
troughing feature digging down the West Coast by the later half of
the week but there is still uncertainty with the strength and
positioning of this system. Continued monitoring of model trends
for this system will be needed over the next several days before
there will be enough confidence to say how the region will be
affected.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1110Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No aviation weather concerns under rounds of mid to high clouds
can be expected throughout the TAF period. Winds will maintain an
easterly component through at least the mid-afternoon hours. There
is some uncertainty regarding a full westerly shift materializing
late afternoon with the potential that winds maintain an easterly
component. For now, the latest TAFs will reflect a westerly
component occurring at around 00z. Overall wind speeds will
remain light aob 7 kts throughout the period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation weather concerns under rounds of mid to high clouds
can be expected throughout the TAF period. Winds will generally be
light and variable through most of the period, although a more
definite northwesterly component is likely at KBLH by this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Unseasonably warm temperatures and overall dry conditions will
persist through Monday, with high temperatures in the upper 70s
to lower 80s and afternoon MinRHs of 15-25%. A pattern shift is
expected going into the middle to end of next week where temperatures
will cool and humidities will improve slightly with MinRHs between
20-30%. Models are suggesting a slight chance for rain by the
middle to late next week, mostly in the eastern districts, but
current confidence is too low at this point in time for exact
impacts.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan/Benedict
LONG TERM...Ryan/Benedict
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Ryan/Benedict